Author: Professor Geoff Harris
University of KwaZulu-Natal
harrisg1@ukzn.ac.za
Introduction
There are estimated to be around 3.7 million legally-held guns in private hands in South Africa and an unknown, but perhaps similar number of illegally-held weapons. Around half of the 20,000 people murdered in each of the last few years were killed by guns.
This briefing paper reviews some recent international experience with gun control and examines its relevance to South Africa.
There are many different opinions about the effectiveness of gun control legislation and it is essential to rely on reliable sources. Articles in academic journals, for example, are based on valid research methods and have been subject to close scrutiny by referees before being accepted for publication. As a result, they should be given more credence than articles by journalists in newspapers and magazines.
The Australian experience with gun control
A recent article in the international journal Injury Prevention [1] examined the apparent effects of Australian gun law reforms introduced between 1996 and 1998. Following a massacre of 35 people at Port Arthur in 1996, state and national governments began a programme to remove semi-automatic and pump actions guns from civilian hands. Some 650 000 such weapons were purchased from their owners at market prices, funded by a special levy on income tax. The main aim of the reforms, which included a much stricter licensing system for gun owners, was to reduce the incidence of 'mass shootings', defined as the gun killings of five or more people at one time.
The main findings of the research were:
- There were 13 mass shootings in the 18 years (1979-96) before the reforms and none in the following 10.5 years (1996-2006).
- Firearm death rates per 100 000 people (made up of suicides and homicides) had been declining during the 18 years prior to the legislation. The researchers investigated whether there were any changes following the reforms. One possibility was that the rates might increase as criminals took advantage of the fewer guns held by civilians for protective purposes. The study found that the rate of decline in firearm-related deaths (both homicides and suicides) at least doubled following the reforms.
Was gun control the source of these positive trends? It could be that some other factors, apart from the reforms, led to the non-occurrence of mass shootings and the accelerated decline in gun deaths following the reforms. It is, however, very difficult to think of such factors. The researchers comment that 'the data swings shown are so obvious that if one were given the data … and were asked to guess the date of a major firearm intervention, it would be clear that it happened between 1996 and 1998.'
The UK experience with gun control
The UK passed extensive gun control legislation in 1997, following the massacre of 16 children and their teacher in Dunblane in 1996. However, there has been no academic study of the effects of this legislation. An article in Wikipedia, the www encyclopedia [2], reports a long term rise in UK gun crime, but notes that this 'is apparently unaffected by the state of UK firearm legislation'.
South Africa
The Australian and UK experience does not suggest that restricting gun ownership has resulted in an upsurge of gun crime. Are there reasons to believe that the effects in South Africa, where gun crime is so much higher, would be any different? Some argue that gun crime is currently being deterred by guns held by non-criminals and that to place restrictions on them will play into the hands of criminals and lead to an upsurge of gun crime.
It is useful distinguish two types of gun crimes - those which are planned (e.g. armed robbery) and those which are spontaneous (e.g. the use of a gun during a domestic dispute). The overall effect of gun control legislation on gun crime will depend on (a) the size of the deterrent effect mentioned above [which results in less gun crime than otherwise] compared with (b) increased gun crime resulting from guns being an item worth stealing, guns being used by criminals against their owners, guns being used in suicides and guns being used spontaneously, as in domestic disputes. Research has yet to be done in South Africa to say which of these effects might be greater.
There are some positive recent data concerning murders and gun-murders in South Africa:
- SAPS data indicates a 12.2% fall in murders in the three years 2001/02- 2004/05 to a little under 19 000 [3].
- the National Injury Mortality Surveillance System, which draws its data from a sample of mortuaries, indicates that between 2000 and 2004, the proportion of homicides in which guns were used has fallen from 61.9% to 57.8% [4].
How can these trends be explained? Guy Lamb, of the Institute for Security Studies, reports that there was no violence prevention strategy or major community crime initiatives which explain the trends. He believes that they can be 'mainly attributed to the implementation of the Firearm Control Act … and to police operations aimed at confiscating illegal firearms'[5].
Changing mindsets about guns
The Australian research reports a massive change in attitudes towards guns following the 1996 massacre and reforms. Such a change is yet to happen in South Africa and the government will need to continue to push the public in socially-desirable directions. South African gun owners have no reason to feel victimized in this respect. This is precisely the job of government which it carries out in areas ranging from environmental protection, the use of seat belts in vehicles and the practice of safe sex.
The government does need to be aware of the fear which motivates many South Africans to own guns. It is an enormous challenge to government to genuinely deal these fears by understanding the underlying causes of crime and effectively dealing with them.
There is no quick fix but major changes in attitude and behaviour are possible, given a combination of good legislation, effective education and action to reduce the perceived need to own guns. Sweden's experience with corporal punishment provides an example of dramatic change in attitude and behaviour. In 1965, over half of Swedes believed that corporal punishment was necessary in child rearing. Only a generation later, in the mid-1990s, a mere 11% of Swedes said they were inclined to use even mild forms of corporal punishment. This was a result of education and legislative reform [6].
References
[1] Chapman, S., Alpers, P., Agho, K. & Jones, M., 2006, Australia's 1996 gun law reforms: faster falls in firearm deaths, firearm suicides, and a decade without mass shootings, Injury Prevention, 12, pp. 365-372.
[2] Wikipedia, 2007, Gun politics in the United Kingdom, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gun_politics_in_the_United_Kingdom (accessed 5 June, 2007)
[3] Altbaker, A., 2005, Positive trends: the 2004/05 crime statistics, SA Crime Quarterly, No. 14, 2005, accessible at http://www.iss.co.za/index.php?link_id=3&slink_id=1023&link_type=12&slink_type=12&tmpl_id=3
[4] A profile of fatal injuries in South Africa 2000, 2nd Annual Report of the National Injury Mortality Surveillance System 2001. A profile of fatal injuries in South Africa, 6th Annual Report of the National Injury Mortality Surveillance System 2004 http://www.sahealthinfo.org/violence/nimss.htm
[5] Lamb, G., 2006, Reducing gun deaths through legislation: the case of South Africa, http://www.iss.co.za/index.php?link_id=14&slink_id=3022&link_type=12&slink_type=12&tmpl_id=3
[6] Hart, N. (ed.), 2005, Eliminating corporal punishment: the way forward to constructive child discipline, Paris: UNESCO.